That’s right. You read the post title. You already know what it is. But since I bears repeating, I shall repeat it:
Get Out is going to win Best Picture at the 90th Academy Awards on March 4, in the year of our Lord 2018.
You don’t believe me? That’s fine. You don’t have to believe me. Yet the signifiers are there, if you are able to see them. I can surely see them. But that is because I am gifted. I’ve always had a sort of extraordinary prescience when it comes to these types of things. In fact, let’s take a look at a couple of things, shall we?
- Critics love it. Get Out, the directorial debut of Jordan Peele, was released at the end of February to near unanimous critical acclaim: It currently stands at 99 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, which says, “Funny, scary, and thought-provoking, Get Out seamlessly weaves its trenchant social critiques into a brilliantly effective and entertaining horror/comedy thrill ride.” And according to the movie-review aggregator, it is the No. 2 critical hit of 2017, beating out critical faves such as The Big Sick (98%); War for the Planet of the Apes (93%); Dunkirk, Wonder Woman, and Thor: Ragnarok (all at 92%). The only film with a higher RT score is Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird, and let’s face it, nothing stays at 100 percent forever. Some jackass is gonna rate it low just to be a contrarian. (I’m looking at you, Armond White.)
- It was a box-office smash. OK, critical acclaim doesn’t always equate to big box office, but ho ho ho! (No, I’m not Santa.) Get Out wowed at the turnstiles as well, earning more than $33 million during its opening weekend — and then legged out to a $175 million finish at the domestic box office. THAT’S A 5x MULTIPLIER, DAWG. The only way films have multipliers that high is if word of mouth is in full effect, and, boy, was it ever for Get Out. Not only did I see the film twice in the theaters, I encouraged other folks to go see it. Some of my friends made it an outing, going to see it and then having dinner afterward to discuss it. That should tell you something. (Oh, it also made $78 million abroad. Films about the Black experience tend to not generally do well overseas. IJS.)
- It’s topical. So you remember in the above point when I said my friends went out to dinner to talk about Get Out? Well, they surely weren’t the only ones. Its racially-charged narrative proved to be fodder for everything from hot takes on HuffPo and Medium to watercooler banter with suddenly woke white co-workers — oh, did that only happen to me? Point is, Get Out had people talking. And talk they did.
- It’s time for a horror movie to win. A horror movie hasn’t won Best Picture since 1992, when The Silence of the Lambs took home the prize. In fact, Lambs took home the Big Five: Picture (still the only horror flick to do so), Actor (Anthony Hopkins), Actress (Jodie Foster), Director (Jonathan Demme), and Adapted Screenplay (Ted Tally). Oh, and like Get Out, Lambs was released in February.
- It’s time for a box-office smash to win. Lately, the Best Picture winners have been niche, indie films that didn’t really earn a lot of money at the box office. I mean, sure, they may have been successful relative to budget, but it ain’t like Spotlight was ever in danger of crossing the $100 million milestone. The last Best Picture winner to see that kind of dough was 2012’s Argo ($136 million). Hollywood is cool with the indies having their time in the spotlight (ha, see what I did there?), but it’s time for a bona fide smash to take home that trophy.
- The Academy wants to prove its “woke-ness.” Remember last year, when the Academy invited more than 600 new members in an effort to diversify like Wu-Tang Financial bonds? Well, it worked: Membership saw a 46-percent increase in women and 41-percent increase in people of color. These folks are gonna vote. And the white men will vote, too, especially if it will make them seem “woke” in the wake of all these damn shameful scandals.
- The awards buzz is deafening. Anyone who reads Deadline or the trades or, hell, watches E! News knows that awards season is upon us and Get Out is leading the charge. Right now, the only films that could give it any trouble are the aforementioned Lady Bird and the gay love story Call Me By Your Name — and as beloved as those films are, please see my earlier points about box-office hits and capturing the zeitgeist. They ain’t gon’ do it like Get Out did.
- It has already begun. As I write this, Deadline is live-blogging the IFP Gotham Awards, and lo and behold, Get Out (which led the nominations with 4) won 3 awards: Best Director, Best Screenplay, and the Audience Award. (It lost Best Picture to Call Me By Your Name, but the Gotham Awards are rooted in New York’s indie film sensibilities, so there’s that.) Oh yeah, Peele also won the Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award. So there’s that.
I know, I know. There are still some disbelievers out there, and that’s fine. But I know what I know, and I’m posting this now so that you will know that I knew what I knew when I said I knew it.
And what I know is this: Come March 4, 2018, we will see Get Out win the Academy Award for Best Picture.
Now … who wanna bet?